Global boiling, and crashed crafts on Mars
Sweltering temperatures wreak havoc across Europe and North America, so what needs to be done to bring them down? We hear from the Cambridge scientist who wants to create the largest ever DNA and health research programme for children and young people. And, did aliens crash-land on Mars? Strange pictures resembling a crash site have been circulating but is there a more mundane explanation?
In this episode
00:56 - Heatwaves 'impossible' without climate change
Heatwaves 'impossible' without climate change
Bob Watson
南欧国家通常经验进行h temperatures in July and August - which is part of the reason they attract so many holiday-makers. But this year those temperatures have gone far beyond their previous limits, and now wildfires are causing havoc in parts of Greece and Italy. Experts say the latest searing heatwave would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change. The UK’s Met Office has also warned that record-temperatures will soon become the norm. Sir Bob Watson is a physical chemist specialising in environmental science and a leading authority on the science of climate change…
Bob - It would be very, very unlikely to occur without human induced climate change. It's not only the heat waves in Europe, but in China, in the southwest of the United States. And the scientists that are looking at these issues do state categorically that without human induced climate change, we would not be seeing these extreme events. And indeed, it's not just heat waves. We're seeing more floods, we're seeing more drought, we are drying our land, which leads to more forest fires. So yes, human induced climate change is certainly linked to these phenomena.
Chris - So it's the pattern that is telling here, because of course we've always had record breaking temperatures in the past, haven't we? We've had one-offs, but it's the consistency and the geographical pattern.
Bob - Yeah. I mean, what we're seeing this year is not only these heat waves, in fact, what we've seen is the hottest day globally. We've now seen the hottest June ever. We've seen the Atlantic Ocean being warmer than ever for this time of year. And we've seen record low amounts of Antarctic sea ice. We've seen all of the patterns that we would expect with human induced climate change. We've always stated that a change caused by humans would lead to more extreme events. And this is what we're seeing.
Chris - And in the near term, what do you think is in store for the tourist industry? Are we going to see more of this and, and should people effectively plan that those sorts of summer holidays might in future be off limits?
Bob - It is not just the summer in the winter within the snow falling later and melting earlier. So the ski resorts in Europe, North America are also threatened by human induced climate change. But you are right. If we start to see as a new normal, these high temperatures in June, July, it would make people want to have more vacations in the spring and in the fall. But of course, children's school holidays are in the middle of summer. Maybe that has to change in the future.
Chris - People often liken the climate to an oil tanker steaming along the sea. As in, there's enormous momentum in the system. So even if you stop the tanker's engines, it's going to roll on for quite some distance before it comes to a halt. So how much worse then is this going to get, even if we go as planned and we aggressively cut down carbon emissions?
Bob - Well, the problem is that the governments that signed the so-called Paris Climate Agreement to try and limit human induced climate change to no more than two degrees Celsius and preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, the pledges these governments have made are not putting us on a pathway to 1.5 or two. They're putting us on a pathway for the world to warm 2.5 to possibly three degrees Celsius. If we want to be on a pathway of one and a half to two, we need global emissions to be 50% lower by 2030 than they were in 2020. And the trouble is the emissions are going up still. They're not going down.
Chris - Do you think that to an extent there's a messaging problem? Because when we say things like one and a half degrees or two and a half degrees, that doesn't sound like very much. I mean, that's obviously a global average. So in global terms, it's huge because there are going to be extremes at each end to reach that average. But do you think we should start telling people, look at what's happening in places like Southern Europe at the moment and that would focus their minds a bit more?
Bob - Oh, I think we have to improve our messaging. What we should tell people is globally averaged. We've only warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. And look what we're seeing. If we go to two degrees, let alone three degrees, we're going to see even more of these three extreme weather. We'll see sea level rise causing coastal erosion, people being moved from their homes. So I do think we have to relate what does 1.5 or two or 2.5 really mean?
克里斯,一个问题是,削减carbon comes a cost to be paid. And many people in the UK are struggling to pay their bills at the moment, and they're being told to install heat pumps costing enormous amounts of money. They're being told they won't be able to buy a gas boiler from a certain date. They're being told they'll have to invest in an electric new car rather than a petrol and diesel one. The UK's contribution to global emissions is about 1%. And many other countries totally eclipse our contributions. So I don't want to use a rude expression, but are we urinating into the wind?
Bob - All countries have to cut their emissions, especially countries that have had high emissions in the past, which are the developed industrialised countries of North America, Europe, Russia, et cetera. We all have to do our part. And there's no question there will be some short term costs, but to be honest, in the long term, it will cost all of us less money to avoid climate change than to adapt to climate change. So we do need to make these changes, but the government has to work with the public to try and make these changes as painless as possible.
Chris - The point I was making though, is that we could bend over backwards in this country and have no carbon emissions at all by working very hard at it. And we would make such a slim dent if everyone else continues the way they're going, that really it would be not worth doing it.
Bob - Absolutely correct. We're all in this together. That's why the Paris Agreement was such an important agreement, and that every country in the world literally said, we will try and achieve these targets, but we need the big emitters. China, the United States, India, the UK alone, zero in its emissions will make very little difference. So there must be an international agreement where we all work together. We're basically all in the same lifeboat. We'll either all sink together or we'll swim together.
08:26 - Children's biobank to catch disease early
Children's biobank to catch disease early
Anna Moore, University of Cambridge
Researchers at Cambridge University are helping to create the biggest health initiative of its kind in this country and, in a world first for children and young people, to link our DNA code and the environment we grow up in with disease risks and health outcomes. Anna Moore is the clinical lead on the study…
Anna - We've got this fantastic opportunity to tackle some of the most pressing, healthy challenges that are facing the NHS. And that's by carrying out pioneering groundbreaking research, which is going to help us to understand the origins of disease, but also to develop new treatments for children, but also for adults throughout their life, of course. So even on to older age. So one of the things that I find most fascinating about this is that if we look at the origins of disease, most of the diseases that we all suffer from start in the first 20 years of life. And yet if we look at the research that's done, it's all predominantly done in adults. And because of this we are missing this huge opportunity to really tackle some of the challenges, develop new treatments, and solve some of the problems that are facing us all, but in particular our children.
Chris - Can you tell us about the nuts and bolts of the study? What are you actually doing and with whom?
Anna - Well, it's with the NIHR BioResource and it's called the DNA Children and Young People's Health Resource or DCYPHR. And what we're doing is we're encouraging children from 0 to 15 to get involved, to become heroes for Healthcare Research. So we're asking them to join DCYPHR to spit into a tube and to answer some questionnaires and then start to become this community of young people who are going to really help us transform health by developing this understanding of the origins of disease and developing these new treatments.
Chris - So this is a follow-up study in the sense that by getting them to spit, you get their DNA code, I presume. And then by joining your community, you can watch what happens to them and presumably you'll know something about their lifestyle, their environment, and so on, so you can begin to unite what happens to them with that DNA code.
Anna - Exactly. And also the other thing that's really critical about BioResource is it's a research resource that can enable new studies. So rather than just being a biobank, which they're incredibly valuable, fantastic data, these are people who are joining who want to contribute to health research. So by joining, they're saying that they're willing to be contacted up to three times a year to get involved in ethically approved health research that can really help us transform the kind of speed at which we're able to answer some of these questions. And young people can get involved in as many of those studies as they want to, or they can decide that none of them are for them. That's absolutely fine.
Chris - What are the big challenges when it comes to children and young people's health that you are hoping to get at with this that we can't get at with? Because there are rival biobank studies that, as you pointed out earlier, have looked at adults and united Adults health outcomes with their DNA and so on. So what are you going for with this specifically?
Anna - There's a couple of opportunities, really. So one is to intervene early, to identify problems early. So if we can understand the relationship between environment, genetics and our health, then we've got this first opportunity to really be able to spot diseases quickly, diagnose early, possibly to prevent, but to create treatments that are able to have an impact in the very early years. And we're hoping, or we expect, that that will have a really significant impact on long-term health conditions. So, and this is really important at the moment, there was a health report that was published by the Health Foundation just this week that showed we've got this real race against time at the moment. So two and a half million extra people are gonna have long-term illnesses by 2040. But on top of that, if we also look at the health of children in the UK compared to those in Europe, they're much, much worse. So, we really need to take the opportunity that we have presenting ourselves now to tackle some of these issues, not only for the individuals involved, but also so that we can tackle some of the challenges of the NHS in the future. It's really important.
Chris - Often though many diseases don't manifest until we're old, but the seeds are sown in our youth. You're not going to have to wait a really long time. Well, as in you and me might well be taking our pension hopefully by the time some of these things manifest. So is this a long-term viewpoint you're taking here?
安娜,我的会有不同的元素t. So there are going to be elements where we are looking at what happens over time, but there's going to be the opportunity to develop treatments really early. So the whole genetic commitment. So one of the things that I think about is type one diabetes diagnosed in childhood from day one. Children and young people have to have multiple injections a day. It's miserable for them, it's miserable for their families. But now we've discovered that there's a subtype of type one diabetes that is particular to children and older people who have a particular genetic subtype. And actually now they can have a treatment, which is a tablet, which is transformative for them. So this isn't just about understanding what happens later, it's also about developing personalised treatments, which we can give to people early in order to have better long-term outcomes. So it is about the long-term, but it's very much about developing personalised preventative treatments for earlier in the disease course as well.
14:26 - HIV 'eliminated' from inner-city Sydney
HIV 'eliminated' from inner-city Sydney
Sharon Lewin, International AIDS Society & Anthony Fauci
澳大利亚卫生官员说,他们已经“古董ally” eliminated HIV transmission in parts of inner-city Sydney that were once the centre of the AIDS epidemic in Australia. It follows the announcement that new infections among gay men in that part of Sydney fell by 88% between 2010 and 2022. Professor Sharon Lewin - an infectious disease expert and president of the International AIDS Society - has been telling us about the significance of the data...
Sharon - This is pretty remarkable and it is approaching the targets of how HIV elimination or elimination of transmission is defined, which means a drop in 90% of infections. This is an area where there is a very large number of gay men who are actively involved and engaged in health promotion, who have high uptake of antiretroviral therapy in people who are infected with HIV, and that makes them non-infectious and also high uptake of HIV prevention measures. Significantly pre-exposure prophylaxis, which is taking antiviral tablets to prevent you becoming infected.
Chris - So, could other parts of Australia benefit from the great work that has been going on in inner-city Sydney?
Sharon - Well, this is one small part of Australia, but a very significant part because that was the epicenter of the HIV epidemic, where we saw the largest deaths in the early 80s. It tells us that these interventions work when you use them properly, and when you have community engagement and community-led education. So other parts of Sydney and then other cities across Australia are doing all of these interventions. But I guess it's inspiring and it gives people hope that this, you can reach these sorts of numbers with a concerted effort. And of course in Australia there has been a number of factors that have led to a very good HIV response, including bipartisan political support for the HIV response since the early 80s. Universal Health Coverage, partnership models of working between government scientists and the community. And so I think it does tell us that if you have these ingredients, you apply the interventions in the way that we've seen inner city Sydney, we really could get to an elimination of HIV transmission. That of course doesn't mean we've eliminated HIV because there are still, in Australia, 28,000 people living with HIV, but we've stopped new infections, which is a very significant milestone.
Chris - Regular listeners will know that it has been 40 years since HIV was first identified. We’ve been reporting just how far treatment has come since the 1980s and, as part of a brand new series coming out soon, we’ll be hearing from the former head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the United States, who also played a massive role in America’s response to HIV; that was Dr Anthony Fauci...
Anthony - We went from a disease with an almost uniform fatality to a disease now where you can give a combination of drugs, sometimes in a single pill once a day, that can bring the level of virus to below detectable level and keep it there and allow persons with HIV, with few exceptions now, to lead almost the normal lifespan, like maybe a year or two less than what would considered the normal life expectancy. That is a major, major accomplishment, which over a period of decades went from despair about no interventions that were of use to a couple of decades later to be able to have transformed the lives of persons with HIV.
Chris - Dr Anthony Fauci. You can hear much more from him next month when we launch a brand new podcast series - which is called Titans of Science. Also on the billing are the former chief medical officer Dame Sally Davies; the fertility expert Lord Robert Winston; and the first Briton in space, Helen Sharman.
18:25 - What is the 'alien spaceship' on Mars?
What is the 'alien spaceship' on Mars?
David Whitehouse
Earlier this week the mainstream media reported the possibility that an alien spaceship crash might account for some strange tracks and pointed structures spotted recently on the surface of Mars. Such a scenario, say researchers, “cannot be discounted with absolute certainty”, particularly as “fragments including what appears to be wheels, an axle and a cratered debris field have been photographed at another Gale Crater location”. So is it ET, or down to something more mundane like seismic activity? Dr David Whitehouse is a space scientist and author of The Alien Perspective: A New View of Humanity and the Cosmos.
David - Well, they come from the Curiosity Rover, which has been exploring Gale Crater now for over three and a half thousand Martian days. And it's taken a lot of pictures, made a lot of measurements, taken a lot of analysis. And these pictures, they draw the eye because they are remarkable structures in the sense that you see half buried in the Martian sand. You see a series of a dozen or so spikes, which reminds some people of vertebrae, of a skeleton half buried in the sand. You see others where you see regular patterns across the sand, other rocks tilted in various directions. You can, with the eye of faith, see something that you might consider to be some sort of structure in there. Something that doesn't look quite natural. And this happened particularly at the one location with the spikes. But there is a cottage industry, I think, of enthusiasts who look at every picture sent back from Mars, not only from Curiosity Rover but from Perseverance Rover and from the satellites going around Mars looking for something that is strange in the hope of finding, you know, the big discovery of aliens or ancient aliens.
Chris -
大卫-嗯,是的,你说的完全正确。没有人能say for certain that an alien spacecraft couldn't have crashed on Mars. Nobody could say it is impossible that an alien spaceship could arrive in Earth orbit tomorrow. It is possible. Question is what is the evidence? And the evidence of these rocks are, is that they are just rocks that have been on the surface of Mars for billions of years. Some of them laid down and when Gale Crater was a shallow sea, you have erosion when they were exposed and the water disappeared from Mars as Mars dried out. So for billions of years, these rocks have been exposed to sand blasting and erosion. And these have sought out the weaknesses in the rocks. These spikes look like regions where deposition occurred of slightly stronger rocks that are related perhaps to seasonal weather or climatic cycles on Mars. And the softer rock has been weathered away, leaving the harder spikes in between. And you can see that in the rocks behind it.
Chris - How big are these structures? Just to give people an idea, when you say the sort of spikes and things sticking out, how big?
David - The spikes are six or seven inches long, and they're remarkable. I go and look at them, they are remarkable, but they are natural.
Chris -
And the US Senate this week has been having some hearings, haven't they, on UFOs and things? has all the usual conspiracy theories coming out of that. Have you watched any of that? And did they talk about this?
大卫-哦,我看着它。这是伟大的。它佤邦s a great theatre. And there is a particular David Gros there. He is an ex intelligence officer who claims to have been told that the United States has 121 crashed alien spacecraft and actually has alien bodies, which they have studied. And they've kept this secret for 80 years or so. Way back to the 1930s, they had alien spacecraft. But to be honest, we've heard all this before and what was yesterday was in front of Congress, so they were under oath and they were testifying, we heard the same story we've heard before. And generally I would classify this, as the Americans say, yesterday's event as a great big nothing burger, because it's all very well to have stories. We all love stories, but there comes a time when you have to have evidence and there's always a soft shoe shuffle with aliens and UFOs that the evidence never quite comes. it's somewhere else. It's classified, it's been covered up, there's a conspiracy. What yesterday showed is that we've reached a stage where stories aren't enough. We need the picture. Somebody says they've seen the picture. Well, for heaven's sake, show it to us.
23:36 - Does space travel hurt the planet?
Does space travel hurt the planet?
It’s an interesting conundrum: how does funding for space exploration, which might well hold the solution to many of our problems, account for costs which may be inflicted on the environment? To help shed some light, I’ve enlisted Xander Byrne from the University of Cambridge’s Institute of Astronomy…
Xander - Thanks James. Frank’s question raises a few interesting points. Rocket launches do have an impact on the greenhouse effect - but it's actually not because of the greenhouse gases they emit.
A lot of rockets use kerosene as their fuel which releases CO2 when it's burned. But kerosene is also used to power jet engines. Whereas in a given week there might be 3 or 4 rocket launches, there will also be about 800,000 flights, so compared to that, rocket launches aren't a huge problem.
The difference is that in a rocket launch, the fuel has to be burned so quickly that we have what's called incomplete combustion. The fuel doesn't burn all the way, and you end up with a load of soot being released into the upper atmosphere.
James - You might not know that soot is actually the second-biggest contributor to global warming after greenhouse gases.
So although some rocket companies will say that the emissions of their rocket launches are much lower than from commercial flights, the amount of soot that they produce is really starting to have an effect, especially since it's partly being released way up in the stratosphere where it tends to stick around for a long time, interfering with the ozone layer and so on.
And the problems don’t stop there…
Xander - There's another fuel which is often used in rocket launches called UDMH (unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine).
Now this is absolutely horrible stuff - it's very carcinogenic, but it doesn't actually need an ignition system, so it's very easy to power a rocket with it.
But just like kerosene, UDMH also doesn't usually burn completely.
So when the early stages of the rocket fall back to Earth, they often contain a lot of unburned UDMH which just gets spilled out into soil and rivers and so on.
James - In Kazakhstan - where a lot of Russian rockets launch from - they've found very high rates of cancer in towns hundreds of miles away from the launch sites.
So rockets which use this fuel are really bad for people living even remotely nearby.
But space exploration continues nevertheless: the potential upside is huge. After all, humanity’s innate urge to push the boundaries, to go where we haven’t before, has served us fairly well to this point.
Thanks for sending that one in, Frank.
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